Some things to keep in mind going into November:
- President Obama's coalition in the electoral college in 2012 was such that you could have taken Ohio, Virginia, and Florida and gave them to Romney and the President would still have been re-elected.
- Governor Romney won the majority of independents and still lost the election due to Obama's margins with liberals and most minority groups.
- Some states that are seen as swing states haven't really swung in a while. Pennsylvania, for instance, has gone blue in every presidential election but one in the last 30 years.
- Mr Trump has only broken 40% of the vote in a handful of primary contests. So when you talk about record turnout, part of it is also the majority of Republican primary voters voting against him because he scares the hell out of most of his own party.
- Clinton or Sanders will likely be able to count on the others voters in the general. The same is less true on the other side. Maybe half of the GOP not currently on Trump's side bring themselves to support him, but that's probably it. And that doesn't get him close enough to the number of votes Romney got in 2012, which means he would lose.
- Of course, the popular vote isn't the determining factor here. It's the electoral college. Like I said, trump could win Ohio, Virginia and Florida on top of whatever Romney won and he'd still lose. Trump won't win all three.
- There is next to no substance to his campaign. Contrary to popular opinion, a lot of Republicans, I'd say almost half, won't be able to bring themselves to cast a ballot for the guy, even if it means 4 more years of a Democrat in the White House. If nothing else, they Iive to fight another day in 2020 if the democrat elected is unpopular.
- So where do the voters that vote Trump into the White House come from? He won't get all of Romney's voters and I'd be surprised if he's able to pull more than 5% of Obama voters, who are largely young, liberal, and of color.
- For all the doom and gloom, a Trump presidency isn't the most likely outcome despite the fears that are being Drumpfed up.
- But he basically broke the back of a major party, and I think he's made his way into the history books regardless of this election's outcome.
Sorry about your city on a hill, Ron.